Public dissatisfaction with the president, Serzh Sargsyan, is likely to remain high. Co-ordinated protests against the government led by the main opposition parties are set to continue in 2015-16.
Economic contraction in Russia and the depreciation of the rouble will hit remittances, which will weigh on economic growth. We forecast that the economy will expand by just 0.3% in 2015.
Despite low economic growth, the budget deficit will remain within 3% of GDP in 2015-16 as the government targets improved revenue collection.

Summary 7

Basic data 8

Political structure 9

Economic structure 10

Annual indicators 10

Quarterly indicators 11

Comparative economic indicators 12

Outlook for 2015-16 13

Political outlook 13

Democracy index 15

Economic policy outlook 16

Economic forecast 17

International assumptions summary 17

Forecast summary 20

Gross domestic product 20

Consumer price inflation 20

Politics 21

Economy 30

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