Political stability in Afghanistan will remain poor, with an ongoing campaign of insurgency by various groups, notably the Taliban. However, there are signs of improving prospects for peace talks with the government.
Economic development will remain the focus of both policymaking and aid efforts. Donors will continue to emphasise the provision of basic services, such as electricity and education, while trying to end aid dependency.
Increasing fiscal revenue is an urgent priority, given that government spending in 2013 was equivalent to almost 25% of GDP and that foreign donors are likely to wind down budgetary support in the coming years.

Summary 7

Basic data 8

Political structure 9

Economic structure 10

Annual indicators 10

Quarterly indicators 11

Outlook for 2015-16 12

Political outlook 12

Democracy index 14

Economic policy outlook 15

Economic forecast 17

Recent analysis 19

Politics 19

Economy 22

International assumptions summary 17

Consumer prices 11

Exchange rate 11

Gross domestic product 18

Consumer price inflation 18

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