The president, Paul Kagame, will dominate the political scene, and the governing Rwandan Patriotic Front (RPF) will face little political opposition. The repressive political climate poses risks to stability in the long term.
Financing constraints will weigh on the execution of public investment. Nevertheless, more effective domestic revenue collection means the fiscal deficit will narrow to 3.2% of GDP in 2015/16 (July-June).
We forecast that annual real GDP growth will average 6.5% in 2015-16, driven by donor- and government financed investment projects and an improved power supply.

Summary 7

Basic data 8

Political structure 9

Economic structure 10

Annual indicators 10

Quarterly indicators 11

Comparative economic indicators 12

Outlook for 2015-16 13

Political outlook 13

Economic policy outlook 14

Economic forecast 16

Recent analysis 19

Politics 19

Economy 26

International assumptions summary 16

Forecast summary 18

Exchange rate 11

Foreign reserves 11

Gross domestic product 18

Consumer price inflation 18

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