The president, Yoweri Museveni, and his National Resistance Movement have ruled Uganda since 1986 and will continue to dominate the political scene well beyond the next elections in February 2016.
The fiscal deficit will average 5.5% of GDP in 2015-17, driven by high public investment, weak public spending controls and lower aid. We expect it to fall to an average of 3.3% of GDP in 2018-19 as oil production boosts revenue.
We forecast an increase in real GDP growth to an annual average of 7% in 2015-17 as external demand rises, and to 12% in 2018-19 as oil production starts.

Highlights 7

Political outlook 8

Economic policy outlook 10

Economic forecast 11

Annual data and forecast 14

Quarterly data 15

Monthly data 16

Annual trends charts 17

Monthly trends charts 18

Comparative economic indicators 19

Basic data 20

Political structure 21

Politics 22

Economy 40

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