Output from the oil industry, which accounts for 50% of GDP, will decline overall in 2015-19. However, investment will remain high in the energy sector in advance of the launch of the Shah Deniz II gasfield in late 2018.
Tensions with Armenia will remain high, owing to the long-running dispute over Nagorny Karabakh. Despite intermittent high-level talks, a resolution to the conflict is unlikely to be reached in the forecast period.
Growth will average 2.9% during 2015-18, held down by weaker oil exports. It will rebound in 2019, to 5%, owing to the start of exports from the Shah Deniz II gasfield.

Highlights 7

Political outlook 8

Economic policy outlook 9

Economic forecast 11

Annual data and forecast 14

Quarterly data 15

Monthly data 16

Annual trends charts 18

Monthly trends charts 19

Comparative economic indicators 20

Basic data 21

Political structure 22

Politics 23

Economy 30

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