The agreement of a peace deal with Russia-backed militias in September does not look especially stable and its conditions may not be fulfilled, but it could be enough to satisfy Russia's desire for control over Ukraine's political future.
Devaluation and higher energy costs will see a spike in inflation in 2014, and US dollar strengthening could keep it at a high rate in 2015.
In 2014 armed conflict has undercut confidence, production and exports, and we estimate a fall in real GDP of about 8%. We forecast a weak pick-up in 2015. Tough reforms could lay the basis for faster growth in 2016-19.

Highlights 7

Political outlook 8

Economic policy outlook 9

Economic forecast 11

Annual data and forecast 14

Quarterly data 15

Monthly data 16

Annual trends charts 18

Monthly trends charts 19

Comparative economic indicators 20

Basic data 21

Political structure 22

Politics 23

Economy 50

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