Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who had been prime minister since 2003, became Turkey's directly elected president in August 2014. The Economist Intelligence Unit expects power to shift from government and parliament to the presidency.
We forecast that the budget deficit will widen from 1.2% of GDP in 2013 to 2.5-3% of GDP in 2014-15 owing to weaker economic growth. We expect it to decline to 2-2.5% of GDP during 2016-19, as the economy picks up.We expect real GDP growth to pick up from an estimated 3% in 2014 to about 5% a year in 2017-19, driven mainly by stronger exports, but the risk of a prolonged period of sub-par growth has increased substantially.

Highlights 7

Political outlook 8

Economic policy outlook 10

Economic forecast 11

Annual data and forecast 15

Quarterly data 16

Monthly data 17

Annual trends charts 19

Quarterly trends charts 20

Monthly trends charts 21

Comparative economic indicators 22

Basic data 23

Political structure 24

Politics 25

Economy 45

中国科学技术信息研究所