The People's Action Party (PAP) will serve a full term and will continue to dominate the political scene in 2015-19. The Economist Intelligence Unit expects the PAP to win the next election, which must be held by January 2017.
For the first time since 2009, the government will post a budget deficit in 2015, equivalent to 1.6% of GDP, reflecting higher spending on infrastructure and social welfare. It will record fiscal surpluses averaging 1.4% of GDP in 2016-19.
We expect real GDP to grow by 3.1% in 2015 as external demand remains weak. The economy will then expand by an annual average of 3.8% a year in 2016-19 as world trade accelerates.

Highlights 7

Political outlook 8

Democracy index 10

Economic policy outlook 11

Economic forecast 13

Annual data and forecast 16

Quarterly data 17

Monthly data 18

Annual trends charts 20

Monthly trends charts 21

Comparative economic indicators 22

Basic data 23

Political structure 24

Politics 25

Economy 35

中国科学技术信息研究所