Political stability has deteriorated, creating an uncertain outlook for 2015-19. However, the prime minister, Peter O'Neill, is expected to remain in power, despite an inquiry and pending arrest warrant against him.
Legislation has passed banning no-confidence motions for the first two-and-a-half years of a government's term. The first opportunity for a no-confidence motion will be February 2015 but one would be unlikely to succeed.

Highlights 7

Political outlook 8

Economic policy outlook 10

Economic forecast 11

Annual data and forecast 14

Quarterly data 15

Monthly data 16

Annual trends charts 17

Monthly trends charts 18

Comparative economic indicators 19

Basic data 20

Political structure 21

Politics 22

Economy 26

Summary 37

Basic data 38

Political structure 39

Economic structure 40

Annual indicators 40

Quarterly indicators 41

Outlook for 2015-16 42

Political outlook 42

Economic policy outlook 44

Economic forecast 45

Recent analysis 48

Politics 48

Economy 49

International assumptions summary 45

Forecast summary 47

Consumer prices 41

Foreign reserves 41

Gross domestic product 47

Consumer price inflation 47

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