The Russian car market fell back in 2013, and more steeply in 2014, after a strong recovery in 2010-12. The government introduced a new car-scrappage scheme in September 2014, which helped to ameliorate the pace of decline in car sales, although it was nevertheless considerable, at 10.3%.
The Russian economy is forecast to contract by 3.5% in 2015 and to recover only feebly in 2016. Car sales will contract again this year substantially—The Economist Intelligence Unit forecasts by 20%. This is because of the combined effects of high geopolitical risk linked to Russia's military actions in Ukraine; Western sanctions imposed in response; as well as a fell in the oil price and a crisis of confidence in the rouble towards the end of 2014. A sharp nationalist turn at home and anti-Western turn abroad has lowered the country's medium-term growth potential.
Although growth in car sales will pick up in the medium term, lower GDP growth and impairments to the banking system will keep income and credit expansion in check. Despite the low rate of car penetration and high potential replacement rate, therefore, the rebound in car sales will be much weaker than after the 2009 crisis, at an annual rate of 7-8%.

Automotive report 2

Overview 2

Passenger cars 3

Commercial and other vehicles 6

Production 7

Fuel sources 9

Industry publishing schedule 11

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