Oil export proceeds accounted for over 30% of fiscal revenue and 13% of total export revenue in 2013. These are disproportionately high and consequently vulnerable to trends in oil prices and production, as the recent slump in oil prices have highlighted.
A decline in oil production over the past decade has strengthened the case for far-reaching reforms in the energy sector and helped the government of the president, Enrique Pena Nieto, to pass a potentially game-changing reform in December 2013.
After peaking in 2004 at 3.9m barrels/day (b/d), production has dipped, to an estimated 2.8m b/d in 2014. The recently approved energy reforms may boost output in the medium to long term, depending on the effectiveness of their implementation and on investor uptake. The Economist Intelligence Unit forecasts that production will increase to 2.9m b/d by 2020, based on the assumption that increased private investment will flow into the sector as a consequence of the energy reform, and will gradually start bearing fruit towards the end of the forecast period. The current decline in oil prices, if it lasts for longer than anticipated (our baseline forecast scenario currently expects Brent to pick up from US$54.38/barrel this year to an annual average US$87.5 in 2016-20), could pose downside risks to our production forecast by negatively affecting the attractiveness of the sector for investors.

Energy report 2

Overview 2

Energy policy 2

Oil and gas 4

Electricity 6

Coal 8

Nuclear 8

Alternative energy 8

Industry publishing schedule 11

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