The Economist Intelligence Unit expects relatively steady growth in retail sales over the forecast period. After an economic slowdown in Germany in 2012-13, activity was volatile in 2014, but a boost to disposable incomes and broader sentiment from the slump in oil prices underpinned a rebound in demand in the closing months of the year. We forecast real GDP growth of 1.8% this year (revised up from 1.2% previously), supported by underlying resilience in the labour market, record-low interest rates and real income gains, and we expect average growth of 1.7% in 2016-19.
Consumer fundamentals have strengthened gradually over the past two years, with the unemployment rate now at a two-decade low and real wages rising. The household sector entered 2015 with some momentum and we forecast that real retail sales growth will accelerate to 1.3% this year. Annual average growth is projected at a modest-looking 0.5% in 2016-19, but this is relatively strong by historical comparison (real retail sales have expanded in just five of the last 20 years).

Consumer goods and retail report 2

Overview 2

Retail 3

Food and drink 6

Non-food products 9

Industry publishing schedule 13

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