The medium- and longer-term outlook for Turkey's retail sector remains broadly positive, given projected growth in incomes and demographic trends. The total population is expected to rise from an estimated 75.4m in 2013, with a low average age of 29, to 78.5m in 2018.
The sector rebounded strongly from the 2008-09 recession, but after robust growth in 2010-11, the short-term risks to the positive outlook have grown, mainly owing to a shift in global risk perceptions since mid-2013, which has caused a sharp fell in the value of the Turkish lira. This eventually led a steep rise in interest rates by the Central Bank of Turkey in January 2014. The rate hike was partly reversed in May-July, but high interest rates and restrictions on consumer lending since January will curb demand, which has grown strongly in recent years. lira weakness may also dampen demand for imported goods.
The risk of political instability has increased. Mass anti-government protests in June 2013 disrupted retail sales temporarily, but deep social and political polarisation, a busy electoral cycle in 2014-15 and government attempts to clamp down on use of the Internet and social media may be more disruptive.

Consumer goods and retail report 2

Overview 2

Retail 3

Food and drink 5

Non-food products 9

Industry publishing schedule 14

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