The Economist Intelligence Unit expects relatively steady growth in retail sales over the forecast period. After a post-recession rebound in economic activity (and consumer spending) in 2010-11, the German economy slowed during 2012-13. Economic output recovered gradually in the year to the second quarter of 2014, but has since stagnated, largely in response to a slump in industrial activity. The near-term outlook has weakened, but underlying trends appear reasonable. We estimate real GDP growth of 1.3% in 2014 and forecast growth of 1.5%in 2015.
Household sentiment has declined recently amid a slowdown in the broader economy, but consumer fundamentals have shown a gradual improvement over the past year or so, with the unemployment rate now at a two-decade low and real wages rising. Although real retail sales growth is forecast to average a modest-looking 0.6% per year in 2014-18, this is relatively strong by historical comparison. Real retail sales have only expanded in six of the past 20 years.
We expect overall sentiment to be constrained by relatively subdued global demand trends, particularly across the euro zone. The crisis in Ukraine has hit output and business confidence in Germany. Over 6,000 German companies are represented in Russia, and investment links are fairly strong. A projected moderate pick-up in German output next year will be helped by an expected loosening of EU sanctions on Russia from mid-2015.

Consumer goods and retail report 2

Overview 2

Retail 3

Food and drink 6

Non-food products 10

Industry publishing schedule 14

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