EU and US sanctions introduced in response to the conflict in Ukraine and downing of a Malaysian passenger plane in July will increase uncertainty for the retail and consumer sectors.
Partly as a result of international tensions the economy is slowly moving into recession. Real wages declined year on year in the third quarter for the first time since the financial crisis of 2009. Household consumption is likely to contract in the second half of 2014 and into 2015.
Russia's retaliatory ban on imports of a wide range of Western food products, introduced on August 6th, will lead to a sharp drop in consumption of certain products. Food prices will remain elevated until at least July 2015. There is a significant chance that the ban may be extended beyond this date, and there remains a risk that Russia may introduce import bans on other consumer products.
Russian countersanctions will push up the price of food, in particular of meat and poultry. The share of total household spending accounted for by food and drink will rise in 2014-15, temporarily reversing a long-term decline. This will crowd out spending on other consumer goods, in particular high-end luxuries.

Consumer goods and retail report 2

Overview 2

Retail 3

Food and drink 6

Non-food products 9

Industry publishing schedule 14

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