Islamic State (IS), an extreme jihadi group, has captured about one-third of Iraq's territory and poses a fundamental challenge to the future territorial and political integrity of Iraq.
It is unlikely that IS could capture Baghdad or the south, the source of most of Iraq's oil exports, or the core Kurdish territory. Momentum seems to be moving against IS, with US support, but retaking territory will be slow.
Despite rising oil production, felling prices combined with rising expenditure will result in a small budget deficit emerging, reaching around 1% of GDP by 2018.

Highlights 7

Political outlook 8

Economic policy outlook 10

Economic forecast 11

Annual data and forecast 14

Quarterly data 15

Monthly data 16

Annual trends charts 17

Monthly trends charts 18

Comparative economic indicators 19

Basic data 20

Political structure 21

Politics 22

Economy 59

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