The Economist Intelligence Unit continues to put the prospects of a solution to the long-standing Cyprus problem at just 30%, although this could change if rapid progress is made this year. Negotiations are expected to resume in May.
We expect another real GDP contraction of 0.4% in 2015 owing to falling Russian tourism arrivals, and a modest pick-up in growth thereafter, averaging around 2.2% in 2016-19.
We now expect another year of modest deflation in 2015. From 2016 we expect a slow pick-up in demand, combined with rising international oil prices, to lead to average inflation (EU harmonised basis) of 2.1% in 2016-19.

Highlights 7

Political outlook 8

Democracy index 9

Economic policy outlook 10

Economic forecast 12

Annual data and forecast 15

Quarterly data 16

Monthly data 17

Annual trends charts 19

Monthly trends charts 20

Comparative economic indicators 21

Basic data 22

Political structure 23

Politics 24

Economy 30

Summary 38

Basic data 39

Political structure 40

Economic structure 41

Annual indicators 41

Quarterly indicators 42

Comparative economic indicators 43

Outlook for 2015-16 44

Political outlook 44

Democracy index 45

Economic policy outlook 46

Economic forecast 48

Recent analysis 51

Economy 51

International assumptions summary 48

Forecast summary 50

Gross domestic product 50

Consumer price inflation 50

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