The beleaguered president, Francois Hollande of the Parti socialiste (PS), will serve a full term, but it is all but certain that the PS will be defeated by the centre-right opposition Union pour un mouvement populaire (UMP) in 2017.
We forecast real GDP growth of 0.9% in 2015-up from 0.4% in 2014-with comparatively weak feed-through to consumption of low oil prices. Growth will pick up to an average annual rate of 1.7% in 2016-19.
We expect consumer price inflation (EU harmonised measure) to decline to an average of 0.1% in 2015, from 0.6% in 2014, in line with falling oil prices. Inflation will then pick up to average 1.4% in 2016-19.

Highlights 7

Political outlook 8

Democracy index 9

Economic policy outlook 11

Economic forecast 12

Annual data and forecast 17

Quarterly data 18

Monthly data 19

Annual trends charts 21

Quarterly trends charts 22

Monthly trends charts 23

Comparative economic indicators 24

Basic data 25

Political structure 26

Politics 27

Economy 37

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