The Economist Intelligence Unit expects the grand coalition of the centre-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU)/Christian Social Union (CSU) and the centre-left Social Democratic Party (SPD) to last its full four-year term to 2017.
The plunge in the price of oil and the weaker euro are a net positive for growth. We now expect real GDP growth of 1.8% this year, driven primarily by private consumption and investment.
Sharply lower oil prices will increase the current-account surplus to 8.1% of GDP in 2015. It will average 7.2% in 2016-19, with the gargantuan trade surplus continuing to dwarf the services deficit.

Highlights 7

Political outlook 8

Democracy index 11

Economic policy outlook 12

Economic forecast 14

Annual data and forecast 19

Quarterly data 20

Monthly data 21

Annual trends charts 23

Quarterly trends charts 24

Monthly trends charts 25

Comparative economic indicators 26

Basic data 27

Political structure 28

Politics 29

Economy 40

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