A political crisis involving the proroguing of the legislature will continue to simmer even after the mid-2015 elections. The ruling People's Progressive Party/Civic (PPP/C) is expected to regain a legislative majority.
Inflationary pressures will remain weak, with annual consumer price inflation averaging 1.4% in 2015 before rising to 2% in 2016.
Because of continuing problems in the sugar sector and strong import growth, the current-account deficit will remain large in 2015-16, averaging 14.6% of GDP.

Summary 7

Basic data 8

Political structure 9

Economic structure 10

Annual indicators 10

Quarterly indicators 11

Comparative economic indicators 12

Outlook for 2015-16 13

Political outlook 13

Democracy index 14

Economic policy outlook 15

Economic forecast 16

Recent analysis 18

Politics 18

Economy 24

International assumptions summary 16

Forecast summary 17

Gross domestic product 17

Consumer price inflation 17

Summary 35

Basic data 36

Political structure 37

Economic structure 38

Annual indicators 38

Quarterly indicators 39

Outlook for 2015-16 40

Political outlook 40

Democracy index 41

Economic policy outlook 42

Economic forecast 44

Recent analysis 46

Economy 46

Gross domestic product 45

Consumer price inflation 45

Summary 53

Basic data 54

Political structure 55

Economic structure 56

Annual indicators 56

Quarterly indicators 57

Comparative economic indicators 58

Outlook for 2015-16 59

Political outlook 59

Economic policy outlook 60

Economic forecast 62

Recent analysis 65

Politics 65

Economy 66

International assumptions summary 62

Forecast summary 64

Gross domestic product 64

Consumer price inflation 64

中国科学技术信息研究所