In line with recent polls and a darkening economic outlook, The Economist Intelligence Unit forecasts that the Liberals will win the next election, scheduled for October, and that Justin Trudeau will become prime minister.
We no longer expect the Bank of Canada (BOC, the central bank) to cut its key policy rate again in 2015, but the decision will be close and more weak economic data could force it to act. It will begin a tightening cycle in mid-2016.
We expect the Canadian dollar to continue to weaken until mid-2016 owing to low oil prices and higher returns in the US. It will strengthen to C$1.13:US$1 by 2019 as the Canadian economy picks up steam and the BOC tightens.

Highlights 7

Political outlook 8

Economic policy outlook 10

Economic forecast 11

Annual data and forecast 15

Quarterly data 16

Monthly data 17

Annual trends charts 19

Quarterly trends charts 20

Monthly trends charts 21

Comparative economic indicators 22

Basic data 23

Political structure 24

Politics 25

Economy 32

中国科学技术信息研究所