The prime minister and leader of the centre-left Partito Democratico (PD), Matteo Renzi, has an ambitious political and economic reform programme, but his coalition is fragile so progress will be slow and piecemeal at best.
Government bond yields are at record-low levels currently, but rolling over Italy's public debt, which we estimate will reach 134% of GDP at end-2014, could become arduous if investor confidence evaporates.
The current account posted a surplus of 1% in 2013, the first since 1999. We expect the surplus to average about 1% of GDP in 2014-19. helped by stronger goods and services exports and weak domestic demand.

Highlights 7

Political outlook 8

Economic policy outlook 10

Economic forecast 12

Annual data and forecast 16

Quarterly data 17

Monthly data 18

Annual trends charts 19

Quarterly trends charts 20

Monthly trends charts 21

Comparative economic indicators 22

Basic data 23

Political structure 24

Politics 25

Economy 37

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