The president, Jakaya Kikwete, will step down in 2015 when his second term ends. His party, Chama Cha Mapinduzi (CCM), will continue to dominate the political scene, but internal divisions will grow as the 2015 elections approach.
Fiscal policy will be expansionary in the lead-up to the polls in October 2015. Thereafter the deficit will moderate as the government recognises the need to get the public finances under control following the pre-election splurge.
We expect the trade deficit to widen as earnings from gold exports decline. The current-account deficit as a percentage of GDP will remain in double digits.

Highlights 7

Political outlook 8

Economic policy outlook 9

Economic forecast 11

Annual data and forecast 14

Quarterly data 15

Monthly data 16

Annual trends charts 17

Monthly trends charts 18

Comparative economic indicators 19

Basic data 20

Political structure 21

Politics 22

Economy 31

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