After winning a landslide victory in the June 21st 2014 presidential election, Mohamed Ould Abdel Aziz will devote his second term to promoting economic growth and ensuring political stability.
Political stability could be undermined by high poverty and unemployment, despite a pick-up in real GDP growth since 2011. This heightens the risk of renewed social unrest and anti-government protests.
We expect the fiscal deficit to widen from an estimated 0.8% of GDP in 2014 to 2.7% in 2016, owing to rising government expenditure on capital projects, which should more than offset rising tax revenue.

Summary 7

Basic data 8

Political structure 9

Economic structure 10

Annual indicators 10

Quarterly indicators 11

Outlook for 2015-16 12

Political outlook 12

Economic policy outlook 13

Economic forecast 15

Recent analysis 18

Politics 18

Economy 25

International assumptions summary 15

Forecast summary 17

Foreign trade 11

Consumer prices 11

Gross domestic product 17

Consumer price inflation 17

Summary 33

Basic data 34

Political structure 35

Economic structure 36

Annual indicators 36

Quarterly indicators 37

Comparative economic indicators 38

Outlook for 2015-16 39

Political outlook 39

Economic policy outlook 40

Economic forecast 42

Recent analysis 45

Economy 45

International assumptions summary 42

Forecast summary 44

Foreign reserves 37

Exchange rate 37

Gross domestic product 44

Consumer price inflation 44

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