We forecast that growth in mobile subscriptions will continue, but that it will decelerate as the market nears saturation. Total subscriptions are expected to exceed 10.5m in 2018, implying a penetration rate of 175%.
All three major players are challenged by declining average revenue per user (ARPU) as traditional revenue sources, such as roaming charges (which accounted for up to 10% of total mobile revenue in 2012), are eroded by increased use of data services like Skype. Nevertheless, ARPU is not expected to decline: operators are adopting tiered pricing plans that will raise revenue from data services.

Telecommunications report 2

Mobile 2

Fixed 3

Internet 4

Industry publishing schedule 6

中国科学技术信息研究所