Between the mid-1990s and 2009 annual growth in public health spending outpaced nominal GDP growth (particularly in 2009, when GDP contracted for the first time since the 1940s). As a result, health expenditure as a share of GDP rose sharply, from 6.7% in the mid-1990s to a peak of 9.8% in 2009.
The proportion of GDP spent on health then dropped in 2010 and 2011-the first two years since the 1970s in which spending declined in real terms, according to the OECD. Having troughed in 2011 at 94% of GDP, The Economist Intelligence Unit estimates that spending picked up to 9.6% of GDP last year. We expect it to trend higher over the forecast period, driven by an ageing and expanding population and the increasing burden of chronic disease.
Our forecast is for total expenditure to rise to £2Oibn (US$3isbn) by 2018, with the ratio of spending to GDP increasing to 10.1%. This assumes annual expenditure growth of 5.3% in 2014-18 (5.5% in US dollar terms), well below the rate before the onset of the global financial crisis, but an increase in real terms. Spending per head will rise by 4.7% a year in local-currency terms.

Healthcare report 2

Healthcare spending 2

Healthcare provision 5

Pharma and biotech 6

Disease trends 9

Industry publishing schedule 12

中国科学技术信息研究所