From a peak of 9.7% in 2009, the proportion of GDP spent on health dropped in 2010 and 2011—the first two years since the 1970s in which spending declined in real terms, according to the OECD. Having troughed in 2011 at 9.2% of GDP, The Economist Intelligence Unit estimates that spending picked up to 9.3% of GDP in 2013. We expect it to trend higher in 2014-19, driven by an ageing and expanding population and the growing burden of chronic disease.
Our forecast is for total expenditure to rise to £216.6bn (US$340.1bn) by 2019, with the ratio of spending to GDP increasing to 9.9%. This assumes annual expenditure growth of 5.3% in 2014-19 (54% in US dollar terms), well below the rate before the onset of the global financial crisis, but an increase in real terms. Spending per head will rise by 4.6% a year in local-currency terms.
As the population continues to grow and age, demands on the healthcare system will intensify. Even if spending growth keeps pace with inflation, the capacity of the system to meet public needs will be reduced. According to the Institute of Fiscal Studies, if these changing demands are taken into account, this will amount to a 9% fell in spending per head from 2010/11 to 2018/19.

Healthcare report 2

Healthcare spending 2

Healthcare provision 5

Pharma and biotech 6

Disease trends 9

Industry publishing schedule 12

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