With a general election due in October 2014, The Economist Intelligence Unit still assumes that the former president, Tabare Vazquez, will win another term of office beginning in March 2015, but the race will be close.
We expect this year's cyclical slowdown to be exacerbated by economic weakness in Brazil and especially Argentina, and expect GDP growth to weaken to 2.9% in full-year 2014, before recovering to above 4% by 2018.
Although the current account will remain in substantial deficit throughout the forecast period, reflecting continuing trade and income imbalances, it will remain manageable, and will be covered by foreign direct investment inflows.

Highlights 7

Political outlook 8

Economic policy outlook 10

Economic forecast 11

Annual data and forecast 15

Quarterly data 16

Monthly data 17

Annual trends charts 18

Monthly trends charts 19

Comparative economic indicators 20

Basic data 21

Political structure 22

Politics 23

Economy 27

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