France remained the third-largest car market in the EU in 2014, after Germany and the UK and ahead of Italy and Spain. The Economist Intelligence Unit expects it to hold this position over the forecast period. The country is also the EU's third-largest vehicle producer, behind Germany and Spain, although output has been falling.
France registered real GDP growth of just 0.4% in 2014, and we expect its recovery to remain weak in 2015, with forecast real GDP growth of 0.9%, even including the boost to real incomes from sharply lower oil prices. We expect growth of 1.2% in 2016 and then an annual average of 1.6% in 2017-19.
Unemployment (national measure) reached 9.9% in 2013 before dipping to an estimated 9.7% in 2014. We expect it to fall gradually to 8% by 2019. This high joblessness, coupled with a continuing squeeze on real disposable incomes from high taxes, will weigh on consumer confidence and the recovery of new-car sales. Nevertheless, having returned to growth-albeit weak-of 0.3% in 2014, we forecast that car registrations will increase by an annual average of 2.1% in 2015-19.

Automotive report 2

Overview 2

Passenger cars 3

Commercial and other vehicles 5

Production 6

Fuel sources 8

Industry publishing schedule 11

中国科学技术信息研究所