After winning another flawed election in November 2013, Imomali Rahmon is likely to remain president in 2014-15.
The repercussions of the West's introduction of "phase three" international sanctions on Russia, due to its interventions in Ukraine, poses a significant risk to Tajikistan's economic growth, trade and exchange-rate policy.
The current-account deficit narrowed in 2013 to 0.7% of GDP, based on official local data. The deficit is expected to widen in 2014 owing to weaker foreign demand, lower prices for key exports and a fell in remittances.

Summary 7

Basic data 8

Political structure 9

Economic structure 10

Annual indicators 10

Quarterly indicators 11

Comparative economic indicators 12

Outlook for 2014-15 13

Political outlook 13

Economic policy outlook 14

Economic forecast 15

Recent analysis 19

Politics 19

Economy 22

International assumptions summary 15

Forecast summary 18

Gross domestic product 18

Consumer price inflation 18

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