The government, led by Civic Platform (PO), is likely to stay in office until 2015. However, a political scandal involving the interior and foreign ministers has not helped the party's chances for re-election.
We have revised down our short-term forecasts for economic growth in response to an escalation of international tensions over Ukraine. We forecast real GDP growth of 2.7% in 2014 and 3.5% in 2015, rising to 4.8% in 2015-18.
The current-account deficit is set to widen again in the second half of 2014 as export recovery falters. Domestic recovery will support this trend thereafter, but with the deficit well below its medium-term average as a share of GDP.

Highlights 7

Political outlook 8

Economic policy outlook 9

Economic forecast 11

Annual data and forecast 15

Quarterly data 16

Monthly data 17

Annual trends charts 19

Monthly trends charts 20

Comparative economic indicators 21

Basic data 22

Political structure 23

Politics 24

Economy 36

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