The domestic political outlook remains clouded following the purge of Jang Song-thaek, the uncle and mentor of North Korea's young leader, Kim Jong-un, in December 2013.
The country will remain internationally isolated. Diplomatic efforts will not make significant headway unless North Korea recants its refusal to discuss denuclearisation.
The black-market exchange rate for North Korea's currency, the won, will remain weak, reflecting a lack of confidence in the authorities' ability to maintain a stable currency.

Summary 7

Basic data 8

Political structure 9

Economic structure 10

Annual indicators 10

Outlook for 2015-16 11

Political outlook 11

Economic policy outlook 13

Economic forecast 14

Recent analysis 17

Politics 17

Economy 24

International assumptions summary 14

Forecast summary 16

中国科学技术信息研究所