Tension and threats to political stability, including the possibility of a coup, will grow in 2015-16 as the president, Pierre Nkurunziza, has decided to stand for a third term.
The fiscal deficit will widen from an estimated 3.4% of GDP in 2014 to 4.6% of GDP in 2015, driven by election-related expenditure before further increasing to 4.7% of GDP in 2016.
Consumer price inflation will increase from 4.4% in 2014 to 5.3% in 2015 driven by loose fiscal policy in the lead-up to the elections. It will further increase in 2016, to 7.9%, reflecting higher international commodity prices.

Summary 7

Basic data 8

Political structure 9

Economic structure 10

Annual indicators 10

Quarterly indicators 11

Comparative economic indicators 12

Outlook for 2015-16 13

Political outlook 13

Economic policy outlook 15

Economic forecast 16

Recent analysis 19

Politics 19

Economy 23

International assumptions summary 16

Forecast summary 18

Exchange rate 11

Consumer prices 11

Gross domestic product 18

Consumer price inflation 18

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