The president, Juan Manuel Santos, will focus on advancing peace talks with the leftist Fuerzas Armadas Revolucionarias de Colombia rebels. Our central forecast is that a final accord will be reached by the end of 2016.
Reduced oil-related revenue, slower GDP growth and spending commitments will widen the fiscal deficit in 2015, but gradual recovery in oil prices and likely new tax rises will reduce the deficit and public-debt ratios in 2016-19.
The current-account deficit will widen sharply in 2015, to 6.9% of GDP, before narrowing gradually, until it reaches 2.6% of GDP in 2019. Portfolio and foreign direct investment (FDD inflows will support the external position.

Highlights 7

Political outlook 8

Democracy index 9

Economic policy outlook 11

Economic forecast 12

Annual data and forecast 16

Quarterly data 17

Monthly data 18

Annual trends charts 20

Monthly trends charts 21

Comparative economic indicators 22

Basic data 23

Political structure 24

Politics 25

Economy 38

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