The Economist Intelligence Unit forecasts a protracted period of political instability and governmental ineffectiveness as the fragmentation of voters' preferences hinders the formation of stable governments.
Our baseline election forecast is a minority Conservative government which will not last a full term. The risks to this forecast have increased in the first weeks of campaigning, owing to an unfocused Conservative performance.
For political reasons, fiscal consolidation dominates economic policymaking. Progress on other pressing concerns-such as a slump in productivity growth since the onset of the financial crisis-is unlikely during the forecast period.

Highlights 7

Political outlook 8

Democracy index 10

Economic policy outlook 11

Economic forecast 13

Annual data and forecast 17

Quarterly data 18

Monthly data 19

Annual trends charts 21

Quarterly trends charts 22

Monthly trends charts 23

Comparative economic indicators 24

Basic data 25

Political structure 26

Politics 27

Economy 42

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