Political stability in Papua New Guinea (PNG) has deteriorated, creating an uncertain outlook for 2015-19. However, the prime minister, Peter O'Neill, is expected to remain in power, despite a pending arrest warrant against him.
The budget for 2014 is another expansionary spending plan, with expenditure projected to rise by 13.6%. The Economist Intelligence Unit forecasts that the fiscal deficit will narrow over 2015-19 owing to stronger revenue growth.
Inflationary pressures will build in 2015-19, in line with strong growth in domestic demand and LNG-related liquidity inflows. We expect consumer price inflation to average 6.7% a year in the forecast period.

Highlights 7

Political outlook 8

Economic policy outlook 10

Economic forecast 11

Annual data and forecast 14

Quarterly data 15

Monthly data 16

Annual trends charts 17

Monthly trends charts 18

Comparative economic indicators 19

Basic data 20

Political structure 21

Politics 22

Economy 26

Summary 34

Basic data 35

Political structure 36

Economic structure 37

Annual indicators 37

Quarterly indicators 38

Outlook for 2015-16 39

Political outlook 39

Economic policy outlook 41

Economic forecast 42

Recent analysis 45

Politics 45

Economy 47

International assumptions summary 42

Forecast summary 44

Consumer prices 38

Foreign reserves 38

Gross domestic product 44

Consumer price inflation 44

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