The Economist Intelligence Unit believes that the widening gulf between the government and the Shia-led opposition threatens progress in reconciliation talks, with the risk that dissidents will revert to violence to further their aims.
Real GDP growth will fall to 2.6% in 2015, as oil production remains flat and prices weaken. Growth will average 3.3% a year over the forecast period, rising to 4.2% in 2018-19 as new aluminium and refinery capacity comes on stream.
We expect the current-account surplus to narrow from 7.4% of GDP in 2014 to 2.6% of GDP in 2019 as oil prices fall. Services earnings will be weak, owing to concerns about domestic instability and security.

Highlights 7

Political outlook 8

Economic policy outlook 9

Economic forecast 11

Annual data and forecast 14

Quarterly data 15

Monthly data 16

Annual trends charts 17

Monthly trends charts 18

Comparative economic indicators 19

Basic data 20

Political structure 21

Politics 22

Economy 39

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