The position of the regime of the president, Bashar al-Assad, is weakening, with the Syrian army suffering several high-profile setbacks. As a result, we now expect Mr Assad to be removed from power before the end of 2016.
We estimate that the economy bottomed out as the temporary stalemate allowed businesses to step up activity in more stable areas. However, the deleterious impact of the war will prevent a strong and sustainable recovery.
With Syria's foreign reserves probably close to being exhausted, and weak, trade fundamentals exacerbated by the strong dollar, we expect the Syrian pound to weaken from S£180:US$1 at end-2014 to S£402.3:US$1 in 2019.

Highlights 7

Political outlook 8

Democracy index 10

Economic policy outlook 11

Economic forecast 12

Annual data and forecast 16

Quarterly data 17

Monthly data 18

Annual trends charts 19

Monthly trends charts 20

Comparative economic indicators 21

Basic data 22

Political structure 23

Politics 24

Economy 38

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