Political stability will be fragile in the near term as the interim authorities struggle to contend with public demands for reform, resistance from the former regime and growing tensions in the run-up to the October 2015 polls.
Limited administrative and financial capacity, exacerbated by weak aid inflows, means that the government will struggle to meet its goals of raising living standards and reducing social tensions by boosting public investment.
The current-account deficit will narrow to 5.2% of GDP in 2015 as oil prices and import demand fall. The deficit will widen slightly to 5.6% of GDP in 2016 as commodity prices rise and higher investment boosts capital imports.

Summary 7

Basic data 8

Political structure 9

Economic structure 10

Annual indicators 10

Quarterly indicators 11

Comparative economic indicators 12

Outlook for 2015-16 13

Political outlook 13

Economic policy outlook 14

Economic forecast 16

Recent analysis 19

Politics 19

Economy 25

International assumptions summary 16

Forecast summary 18

Exchange rate 11

Foreign reserves 11

Gross domestic product 18

Consumer price inflation 18

中国科学技术信息研究所