The governor, Alejandro Garcia Padilla of the Partido Popular Democratico, benefits from his party's control of the Legislative Assembly, but a slump in popular support is complicating governability.
The economy will contract by 1.5% in the 2014/15 fiscal year (July-June), owing to fiscal adjustments and investor uncertainty. Assuming that a default is avoided, the economy should begin to grow again in 2015/16.
After rising to an estimated 8.7% of GNP in the 2013/14 fiscal year, Puerto Rico's current-account surplus will rise, owing to much lower oil prices, which will more than offset declining US federal transfers.

Summary 7

Basic data 8

Political structure 9

Economic structure 10

Annual indicators 10

Quarterly indicators 11

Outlook for 2015-16 12

Political outlook 12

Economic policy outlook 13

Economic forecast 15

Recent analysis 18

Politics 18

Economy 20

International assumptions summary 15

Forecast summary 17

Gross national product 17

Consumer price inflation 17

Summary 32

Basic data 33

Political structure 34

Economic structure 35

Annual indicators 35

Quarterly indicators 36

Outlook for 2015-16 37

Political outlook 37

Economic policy outlook 38

Economic forecast 40

Recent analysis 43

Politics 43

Economy 44

International assumptions summary 40

Forecast summary 42

Gross domestic product 42

Consumer price inflation 42

Summary 54

Basic data 55

Political structure 56

Economic structure 57

Annual indicators 57

Quarterly indicators 58

Outlook for 2015-16 59

Political outlook 59

Economic policy outlook 60

Economic forecast 62

Recent analysis 65

Politics 65

Economy 67

International assumptions summary 62

Forecast summary 63

Gross domestic product 64

Consumer price inflation 64

Summary 70

Basic data 71

Political structure 72

Economic structure 73

Annual indicators 73

Recent analysis 74

Economy 74

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