At the snap general election in September 2012, voters returned to the political centre, boosting political stability. That said, the coalition government has been more unstable and less effective than many voters had anticipated.
Sustaining economic recovery, while ensuring financial stability and reducing the budget deficit, will remain the government's focus. We expect the deficit to narrow from an estimated 2.7% of GDP in 2014 to around 1% in 2018-19.
We estimate inflation (EU harmonised measure) at 0.3% in 2014, compared with an outturn of 2.6% in 2013. Further out, we see a pick-up in inflation pressures, yielding an average rate of 1.4% in 2015-19.

Highlights 7

Political outlook 8

Economic policy outlook 9

Economic forecast 11

Annual data and forecast 15

Quarterly data 16

Monthly data 17

Annual trends charts 19

Quarterly trends charts 20

Monthly trends charts 21

Comparative economic indicators 22

Basic data 23

Political structure 24

Politics 25

Economy 31

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