书名：Country report. Equatorial Guinea, Sao Tome and Principe, Guinea-Bissau, Cabo Verde
责任者：edited by Bjorn Dahlin van Wees, Philip Walker | Wees, Bjorn Dahlin van | Walker, Philip
出版时间：2015
出版社：Economist Intelligence Unit
摘要
The main threat to political stability in 2015-19 is the risk of the elderly president, Teodoro Obiang Nguema Mbasogo, leaving office suddenly, owing to either ill health or a coup, which could create a destabilising power contest.
After peaking at 8.2% of GDP in 2015, we expect the fiscal deficit to narrow gradually, reaching 3.5% of GDP in 2019, as oil revenue shortfalls and financing constraints force the government to rein in spending.
The current-account deficit, as a proportion of GDP, will widen to 20.4% in 2015 as oil exports fall, before narrowing to 13.9% in 2016 as oil prices recover. Thereafter it will widen as oil and gas exploration sucks in imports.
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目录
Highlights 7
Political outlook 8
Democracy index 10
Economic policy outlook 11
Economic forecast 12
Annual data and forecast 16
Quarterly data 17
Monthly data 18
Annual trends charts 19
Monthly trends charts 20
Comparative economic indicators 21
Basic data 22
Political structure 23
Politics 24
Economy 25
Summary 33
Basic data 34
Political structure 35
Economic structure 36
Annual indicators 36
Quarterly indicators 37
Comparative economic indicators 38
Outlook for 2015-16 39
Political outlook 39
Economic policy outlook 40
Economic forecast 42
Recent analysis 45
Politics 45
Economy 47
International assumptions summary 42
Forecast summary 44
Exchange rate 37
Foreign trade 37
Gross domestic product 44
Consumer price inflation 44
Summary 52
Basic data 53
Political structure 54
Economic structure 55
Annual indicators 55
Quarterly indicators 56
Outlook for 2015-16 57
Political outlook 57
Democracy index 58
Economic policy outlook 60
Economic forecast 61
Recent analysis 64
Politics 64
Economy 66
International assumptions summary 61
Forecast summary 63
Foreign trade 56
Foreign reserves 56
Gross domestic product 63
Consumer price inflation 63
Summary 72
Basic data 73
Political structure 74
Economic structure 75
Annual indicators 75
Quarterly indicators 76
Comparative economic indicators 77
Outlook for 2015-16 78
Political outlook 78
Democracy index 79
Economic policy outlook 80
Economic forecast 82
Recent analysis 85
Politics 85
Economy 87
International assumptions summary 82
Forecast summary 84
Exchange rate 76
Foreign reserves 76
Gross domestic product 84
Consumer price inflation 84
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