Belarus has benefited from a rise in loans and more economic opportunities in the wake of the Ukraine crisis, despite the impact on regional growth. Russian support should prevent another bout of economic destabilisation.
Ahead of the presidential election in 2015, the authorities are likely to boost wages, thereby sustaining inflation at a high rate. Inflation will also be kept high by continued ruble depreciation.
The current-account deficit will narrow again in 2015, owing to retention of export duties on Russian oil. The gap will widen in 2016 in step with a modest economic upturn.

Summary 7

Basic data 8

Political structure 9

Economic structure 10

Annual indicators 10

Quarterly indicators 11

Comparative economic indicators 12

Outlook for 2015-16 13

Political outlook 13

Economic policy outlook 14

Economic forecast 15

Recent analysis 19

Politics 19

Economy 23

International assumptions summary 15

Forecast summary 18

Gross domestic product 18

Consumer price inflation 18

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