The global polyethylene (PE) industry can be characterized mainly by a wave of capacity additions in North America, the Middle East, and China (mainly coal based). The shift toward lighter and cost-advantaged feedstock in North America is incentivizing production in the region. The competition in the international market has increased, adding pressure to the high-cost producers, especially in Western Europe. With the dip in oil prices in late 2014, the cost advantages enjoyed by natural gas-based producers declined but were not totally eliminated. Thus, North American capacity and production increases in the coming years will result in increased exports from the region. China is expected to benefit from local production, although its rapid demand growth will continue to depend on imported low-density polyethylene (LDPE) resins.
Global capacity for LDPE is expected to exceed 28 million metric tons by 2021, up from the current capacity of 24 million metric tons. Polyethylene includes low-density (LDPE), high-density (HDPE), and linear low-density (LLDPE) grades, with LDPE accounting for 23% of total polyethylene demand in 2016 (combining LDPE with LLDPE accounts for 55% of the total polyethylene).
Global LDPE demand is forecast to be nearly 24 million metric tons in 2021, with predicted average annual global growth of 2.8% during 2016-21. Current demand for LDPE is around 20.8 million metric tons in 2016, driven primarily by China.
ExxonMobil, LyondellBasell, and Sinopec are the top three producers globally, accounting for a collective share of 18% of the global capacity in 2016. ExxonMobil is the largest producer globally, with 6.6% of the total capacity in 2016.
While the current low-priced-crude environment has given pause to some of the more speculative investment projects in the forecast period, the majority of projects put in place prior to the drop in crude prices beginning in late 2014 are still progressing.
By 2021, China is expected to add close to 1.5 million metric tons of capacity, and is expected to have an above-average annual capacity growth rate—8.5%—between 2016 and 2021. Many of the US capacity investments announced in the recent past owing to the shale boom will come to fruition during this period, and North America will surpass the Middle East and China as the largest producer—with 5.4 million metric tons of LDPE capacity by 2021. However, while the United States will add a comparable 1.2 million metric tons at a growth rate of 6.3%, its domestic consumption is expected to increase by only about 171,000 metric tons, whereas China’s is predicted to increase by 1.5 million metric tons.
China will continue to lead world demand for polyethylene, and is expected to have a total demand of 7.0 million metric tons of LDPE resins by 2021. Film and sheet applications continue be the largest end-use segment in China and globally, accounting for 73% of the demand in 2021. China is short domestically, and the market for LDPE imports will continue to grow.
In contrast, US consumption will grow at a modest average annual rate of 1.5% in 2016-21, and will reach over 2.4 million metric tons by 2021. With further aggressive expansions, the United States will remain long, and LDPE exports will grow rapidly over the next five years. In Western Europe, demand will surpass 3.7 million metric tons, but its growth will be more modest, at 0.4% in the next five years.
Film and sheet, injection molding, and extrusion coating applications for LDPE drive overall demand. Demand in the United States and Western Europe is driven by film and sheet and extrusion coating applications, whereas Chinese demand is driven by injection molding as the second-largest application. Countries with large populations and growing economies, such as China, India, and Indonesia, have great growth potential.
Global trade in the next five years will be affected primarily by increased exports from North America and growing selfsufficiency in China. The Middle East will continue to export large volumes in the forecast years.

Executive summary 5

Summary 6

Capacity 6

Salient statistics 7

Consumption 9

Price 13

Trade 13

World polyethylene (PE) overview 16

Introduction 20

Manufacturing processes 23

High-pressure autoclave 23

- LyondellBasell—Lupotech A 24

- ExxonMobil 24

- Versalis 24

High-pressure tubular 24

- LyondellBasell—Lupotech T 24

- ExxonMobil 24

- SABTEC 24

Versalis 24

Conversion processes 25

Environmental issues 26

Supply and demand by region 28

North America 28

- Overview 28

- Producing companies 28

- Salient statistics 29

- Consumption 30

- Trade 31

- United States 31

- Producing companies 31

- Salient statistics 34

- Consumption 35

- Film and sheet 36

- Extrusion coating 41

- Injection molding 42

- Wire and cable 43

- Blow molding 43

- Other 43

- Trade 46

- Canada 47

- Producing companies 47

- Salient statistics 47

- Consumption 48

- Trade 49

- Mexico 49

- Producing companies 49

- Salient statistics 50

- Consumption 51

- Trade 51

South America 51

- Producing companies 51

- Salient statistics 53

- Consumption 53

- Trade 54

Western Europe 54

- Producing companies 54

- LDPE 54

- Copolymers 57

- Salient statistics 57

- Consumption 58

- Trade 59

Central Europe 59

- Producing companies 59

- Salient statistics 61

- Consumption 61

- Trade 62

CIS and Baltic States 62

- Producing companies 62

- Salient statistics 63

- Consumption 64

- Trade 65

Middle East 65

- Producing companies 65

- Salient statistics 68

- Consumption 69

- Trade 70

Africa 70

- Producing companies 70

- Salient statistics 70

- Consumption 71

- Trade 72

Indian Subcontinent 72

- Producing companies 72

- Salient statistics 73

- Consumption 73

- Trade 74

Northeast Asia 74

- Overview 75

- Producing companies 75

- Salient statistics 75

- Consumption 76

- Trade 77

- China 77

- Producing companies 77

- Salient statistics 80

- Consumption 80

- Trade 81

- Japan 82

- Producing companies 82

- Salient statistics 83

- Consumption 83

- Trade 84

- South Korea 84

- Producing companies 84

- Salient statistics 85

- Consumption 86

- Trade 87

- Taiwan 87

- Producing companies 87

- Salient statistics 88

- Consumption 89

- Trade 89

Southeast Asia 90

- Producing companies 90

- Salient statistics 91

- Consumption 91

- Trade 92

Other Asia 92

Bibliography 93

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