Q1:We continue to maintain our mixed outlook for the South African agricultural market as a whole in our latest Q1 2017 report update. We believe that corn and wheat - crucial grain sectors of the country - took severe losses due to the El Nino-related drought. Nevertheless, we expect them both to rebound out to 2020, as the weather conditions improve. Furthermore, livestock production (poultry and pork) and sugar consumption will both embark on a positive trajectory. Over the medium term, a weak rand, weather volatility and falling farm incomes will exert downward pressures on the market. We view South Africa as a generally lucrative market with strong economic growth, rising incomes, a solid population base and growing discretionary spending powers coupled with rising per capita private final consumption levels. Our production and consumption forecasts are predicated upon higher food consumption and a growing national appetite for meats and confectionaries among other commodities. We do believe that the market will track upwards but caution that weather volatility and currency weakness remain persistent features, especially as South Africa must import a variety of foodstuffs to feed domestic demand.
Q2:We have made positive revisions to our forecast in the latest Q217 South Africa agribusiness report update. We have positively revised our com and wheat forecasts for 2016/17 as the country recovers from the severe El Nino droughts of 2015/16. Both crucial segments will rebound out to 2021, as the climate improves. Furthermore, livestock production (poultry and pork) and sugar consumption will both embark on a positive trajectory. Over the medium term, a weak rand, weather volatility and falling farm incomes will exert downward pressures on the market. We view South Africa as a generally lucrative market with strong economic growth, rising incomes, a solid population base and growing discretionary spending powers coupled with rising per capita private final consumption levels. Our production and consumption forecasts are predicated upon higher food consumption and a growing national appetite for meats and confectionaries among other commodities. We do believe that the market will track upwards but caution that weather volatility and currency weakness remain persistent features, especially as South Africa must import a variety of foodstuffs to feed domestic demand.
Q3:We have once again made positive revisions to our forecast in the Q317 report update. We have positively revised our corn and wheat forecasts for 2016/17 as the country recovers from the severe El Nino droughts of 2015/16. Both crucial segments will rebound out to 2021 as the climate improves. Furthermore, livestock production (poultry and pork) and sugar consumption will both embark on a positive trajectory. Over the medium term, a weak rand, weather volatility and falling farm incomes will exert downward pressures on the market. We remain concerned about the upcoming land reforms as the Zuma government has thus far touted very severe options that could catastrophically dampen grains and farming agricultural base.
Q4:The South African agribusiness sector is on a moderate growth trajectory out to 2021, helped by a recovery in com production and further stimulated by growth in the beef and pork sectors. This outlook is tempered by the struggling poultry industry; fierce competition from imports, stricter domestic regulations and restricted access to markets will continue to undermine one of the most important contributors to agricultural production value and employment in South Africa. Over the medium term, a weak rand and falling farm incomes will exert downward pressure on the market.

South Africa Agribusiness Report Q1 2017

BMI Industry View 7

SWOT 9

Industry Forecast 11

      Sugar Outlook 11

      Latest Updates 11

      Table: South Africa - Sugar Production And Consumption Outlook 11

      Table: Risks To Outlook 12

      Structural Trends 12

      Table: Sugar Consumption & Production (South Africa 2013-2020) 13

      Rice Outlook 14

      Latest Updates 14

      Table: South Africa - Rice Consumption Outlook 14

      Table: Risks To Outlook 14

      Structural Trends 15

      Table: Rice Consumption (South Africa 2013-2020) 16

      Grains Outlook 16

      Latest Updates 16

      Table: South Africa - Grains Production & Consumption Outlook 16

      Table: Risks To Outlook 17

      Structural Trends 17

      Table: Grains Production & Consumption (South Africa 2013-2020) 18

      Livestock Outlook 18

      Latest Updates 18

      Table: South Africa - Livestock Production & Consumption Outlook 19

      Table: Risks To Outlook 20

      Structural Trends 20

      Table: Poultry Production & Consumption (South Africa 2012-2020) 21

Commodities Price Analysis 22

      Global - Global Commodities Strategy 22

      Table: Select Commodities - Performance & BMI Forecasts 22

Upstream Analysis 24

      Africa GM Outlook 24

      Africa Machinery Outlook 32

      Table: How Africa Compares With Other Regions 32

      Africa Fertiliser Outlook 38

Downstream Analysis 43

      Food 43

      Latest Updates 43

      Structural Trends 44

      Table: Food Sales (South Africa 2013-2020) 45

Regional Overview 47

      Middle East & Africa Regional Overview 47

Competitive Landscape 53

      Table: Main Agribusiness Companies 53

Demographic Forecast 54

      Demographic Outlook 54

      Table: Population Headline Indicators (South Africa 1990-2025) 55

      Table: Key Population Ratios (South Africa 1990-2025) 55

      Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (South Africa 1990-2025) 56

      Table: Population By Age Group (South Africa 1990-2025) 56

      Table: Population By Age Group % (South Africa 1990-2025) 57

Methodology 59

      Industry Forecast Methodology 59

      Sector-Specific Methodology 60

South Africa Agribusiness Report Q2 2017

BMI Industry View 7

SWOT 9

Industry Forecast 11

      Sugar Outlook 11

      Latest Updates 11

      Table: South Africa - Sugar Production And Consumption Outlook 11

      Table: Risks To Outlook 12

      Structural Trends 12

      Table: Sugar Consumption & Production (South Africa 2013-2020) 15

      Rice Outlook 16

      Latest Updates 16

      Table: South Africa - Rice Consumption Outlook 16

      Table: Risks To Outlook 16

      Structural Trends 17

      Table: Rice Consumption (South Africa 2015-2021) 19

      Grains Outlook 20

      Latest Updates 20

      Table: South Africa - Grains Production & Consumption Outlook 20

      Table: Risks To Outlook 21

      Structural Trends 21

      Table: Grains Production & Consumption (South Africa 2015-2021) 23

      Livestock Outlook 24

      Latest Updates 24

      Table: South Africa - Livestock Production & Consumption Outlook 24

      Table: Risks To Outlook 25

      Structural Trends 26

      Table: Livestock Production & Consumption (South Africa 2015-2021) 27

Commodities Price Analysis 29

      Global Commodities Strategy 29

      Table: Select Commodities - Performance & BMI Forecasts 29

Upstream Analysis 31

      Africa GM Outlook 31

      Africa Machinery Outlook 39

      Table: How Africa Compares With Other Regions 39

      Africa Fertiliser Outlook 45

Downstream Analysis 52

      Food 52

      Latest Updates 52

      Structural Trends 53

      Table: Food Sales (South Africa 2013-2020) 54

Regional Overview 56

Competitive Landscape 63

      Table: Main Agribusiness Companies 63

Demographic Forecast 64

      Demographic Outlook 64

      Table: Population Headline Indicators (South Africa 1990-2025) 65

      Table: Key Population Ratios (South Africa 1990-2025) 65

      Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (South Africa 1990-2025) 66

      Table: Population By Age Group (South Africa 1990-2025) 66

      Table: Population By Age Group % (South Africa 1990-2025) 67

Methodology 69

      Industry Forecast Methodology 69

      Sector-Specific Methodology 70

South Africa Agribusiness Report Q3 2017

BMI Industry View 7

SWOT 9

      Agribusiness 9

Industry Forecast 12

      Sugar Outlook 12

      Table: South Africa - Sugar Production And Consumption Outlook 12

      Table: Risks To Outlook 13

      Table: Sugar Consumption & Production (South Africa 2014-2021) 16

      Rice Outlook 17

      Table: South Africa - Rice Consumption Outlook 17

      Table: Risks To Outlook 17

      Table: Rice Consumption (South Africa 2015-2021) 20

      Grains Outlook 21

      Table: South Africa - Grains Production & Consumption Outlook 21

      Table: Risks To Outlook 22

      Table: Grains Production & Consumption (South Africa 2015-2021) 24

      Livestock Outlook 26

      Table: South Africa - Livestock Production & Consumption Outlook 26

      Table: Risks To Outlook 27

      Table: Livestock Production & Consumption (South Africa 2015-2021) 29

Commodities Price Analysis 31

      Commodities Performance And Forecasts 31

      Table: Bmi Commodities Views 31

      Table: Select Commodities - Performance & BMI Forecasts 33

Upstream Analysis 35

      Africa Machinery Outlook 35

      Table: How Africa Compares With Other Regions 35

      Africa GM Outlook 41

      Africa Fertiliser Outlook 48

Downstream Analysis 56

      Food 56

      Latest Updates 56

      Structural Trends 57

      Table: Food Sales (South Africa 2014-2021) 59

Regional Overview 61

      Six Key Themes For Middle East And Africa Agribusiness 61

Competitive Landscape 68

      Table: Main Agribusiness Companies 68

Demographic Forecast 69

      Demographic Outlook 69

      Table: Population Headline Indicators (South Africa ]990-2025) 70

      Table: Key Population Ratios (South Africa 1990-2025) 70

      Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (South Africa 1990-2025) 71

      Table: Population By Age Group (South Africa 1990-2025) 71

      Table: Population By Age Group % (South Africa 1990-2025) 72

Methodology 74

      Industry Forecast Methodology 74

      Sector-Specific Methodology 75

South Africa Agribusiness Report Q4 2017

BMI Industry View 7

SWOT 10

      Agribusiness 10

Industry Forecast 12

      Sugar Outlook 12

      Table: South Africa - Sugar Production And Consumption Outlook 12

      Table: Risks To Outlook 13

      Table: Sugar Consumption & Production (South Africa 2014-2021) 15

      Rice Outlook 16

      Table: South Africa - Rice Consumption Outlook 16

      Table: Risks To Outlook 16

      Table: Rice Consumption (South Africa 2015-2021) 18

      Grains Outlook 19

      Table: South Africa - Grains Production & Consumption Outlook 19

      Table: Risks To Outlook 20

      Table: Grains Production & Consumption (South Africa 2015-2021) 22

      Livestock Outlook 23

      Table: South Africa - Livestock Production & Consumption Outlook 23

      Table: Risks To Outlook 24

      Table: Poultry Production & Consumption (South Africa 2013-2021) 26

Commodities Price Analysis 27

      Commodities Performance And Forecasts 27

      Table: BMI Commodities Views 27

      Table: Select Commodities - Performance & BMI Forecasts 29

Upstream Analysis 31

      Africa Machinery Outlook 31

      Table: How Africa Compares With Other Regions 31

      Africa GM Outlook 37

      Africa Fertiliser Outlook 45

Downstream Analysis 52

      Food 52

      Latest Updates 52

      Structural Trends 53

      Table: Food Sales (South Africa 2014-2021) 54

Regional Overview 56

      Six Key Themes For Middle East And Africa Agribusiness 56

Competitive Landscape 63

      Table: Main Agribusiness Companies 63

Demographic Forecast 64

      Demographic Outlook 64

      Table: Population Headline Indicators (South Africa 1990-2025) 65

      Table: Key Population Ratios (South Africa 1990-2025) 65

      Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (South Africa 1990-2025) 66

      Table: Population By Age Group (South Africa 1990-2025) 66

      Table: Population By Age Group % (South Africa 1990-2025) 67

Methodology 69

      Industry Forecast Methodology 69

      Sector-Specific Methodology 70

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