Q1: Thailand will maintain its status as a key Asian agricultural provider in the coming years, as the sector boasts strong export opportunities and government support, as well as an efficient food producing industry. The sugar and livestock sectors hold promising growth stories. However, the government's interference in the market, especially in the rice sector, will hinder the competitiveness of Thai production compared to other Asian rivals. Rice production will face downward pressure as the government incentivises farmers to switch away from rice towards other crops, mainly sugarcane, in a bid to curb the oversupply of rice. That said, Thailand will likely regain its status as the world's largest rice exporter in the coming years as production picks up once more in 2017 after the drought recorded in 2015-2016. Beyond the rice sub-sector, we have made a number of revisions to our forecasts this quarter but they have been predominantly to the upside，strengthening our positive outlook for Thailand's agribusiness sector.
Q2: We remain broadly positive in our view of Thailand's agribusiness sector. We put this view down to the sector having a combination of strong export opportunities, ongoing government support for the sector, and an efficient food processing industry. In our view, the only exception to this positive forecast is for sugar production, which we see contracting across our newly-extended five-year forecast period out to 2022. BMI continues to believe that the government will soon bow to pressure and pass new measures to its sugarcane price support programme early in 2018. When such a development does take place, we believe that deregulation of the Thai sugar sector will lead to lower output levels of the crop, hence our negative view on sugar output Beyond sugar, the dairy and livestock sectors hold promising growth stories. However, the governments interference in the market especially in the rice sector, will hinder the competitiveness of Thai production compared to other Asian rivals. Rice production will face downward pressure as the government incentivises farmers to switch away from rice towards other crops, mainly sugar cane, in a bid to curb the oversupply of rice. Despite this, we expect rice output to accelerate across our forecast period and surpass previous highs starting in 2021. As a result, Thailand will likely regain its status as the world's largest rice exporter in the coming years thanks to production having enjoyed a boost once more in 2017, one which turned around the fortunes of the market following the drought which hit output in 2015-2016.
Q3: We remain broadly positive in our view of Thailand^ agribusiness sector. We put this view down to the sector having a combination of strong export opportunities, ongoing government support for the sector, and an efficient food processing industry. In our view, the only exception to this positive forecast is for sugar production, which we see contracting across our five-year forecast period out to 2022. BMI continues to believe that the government will soon bow to pressure and pass new measures to its sugarcane price support programme in 2018. The dairy and livestock sectors both continue to post healthy momentum with bright futures on the horizon.
Q4: We remain broadly positive in our view of Thailand's agribusiness sector. We put this view down to the sector having a combination of strong export opportunities, ongoing government support for the sector, and an efficient food processing industry. However, risks are looming over the livestock and sugar sectors, linked with production overcapacity in the former and an upcoming subsidy reform in the later.

Thailand Agribusiness Report Q1 2018

BMI Industry View 7

SWOT 10

      Agribusiness 10

Industry Forecast 12

      Grains Outlook 12

      Table: Thailand - Com Production And Consumption Outlook 13

      Table: Thailand- Risks To Grains Outlook 13

      Table: Com Production And Consumption (Thailand 2013-2021) 16

      Rice Outlook 16

      Table: Thailand - Rice Production & Consumption Outlook 17

      Table: Thailand - Risks To Rice Outlook 17

      Table: Rice Production And Consumption (Thailand 2014-2021) 20

      Sugar Outlook 20

      Table: Thailand - Sugar Production And Consumption Outlook 21

      Table: Thailand - Risks To Sugar Outlook 22

      Table: Sugar Production And Consumption (Thailand 2014-2021) 27

      Dairy Outlook 27

      Table: Thailand - Dairy Production And Consumption Outlook 28

      Table: Thailand - Risks To Dairy Outlook 28

      Table: Dairy Production And Consumption (Thailand 2014-2021) 32

      Livestock Outlook 32

      Table: Thailand - Livestock Production And Consumption Outlook 33

      Table: Thailand - Risks To Livestock Outlook 34

      Table: Livestock Production & Consumption (Thailand 2014-2021) 37

Commodity Price Forecasts 38

      Monthly Commodities Strategy: La Nina Back On The Radar 38

      Table: BMI Commodities Views 41

      Table: Select Commodities - Performance &. BMI Forecasts 43

Upstream Analysis 45

      Asia Machinery Outlook 45

      Asia GM Outlook 52

      Table: Selected Countries - GM Crops Use (mn hectares) 59

      Asia Fertiliser Outlook 60

Downstream Analysis 67

      Food 67

      Latest Updates 67

      Structural Trends 68

      Table: Food Sales (Thailand 2014-2021) 69

Regional Overview 72

      Table: India - Ongoing Agricultural Policy Reforms 76

      Table: Australia - The Agricultural loT And Technology Ecosystem 79

Competitive Landscape 81

      Table: Thailand Agribusiness Companies 81

Demographic Forecast 82

      Demographic Outlook 82

      Table: Population Headline Indicators (Thailand 1990-2025) 83

      Table: Key Population Ratios (Thailand 1990-2025) 83

      Table: Urban/Rural Population And Life Expectancy (Thailand 1990-2025) 84

      Table: Population By Age Group (Thailand 1990-2025) 84

      Table: Population By Age Group % (Thailand 1990-2025) 85

Methodology 87

      Industry Forecast Methodology 87

      Sector-Specific Methodology 88

Thailand Agribusiness Report Q2 2018

BMI Industry View 4

SWOT 7

Industry Forecast 8

      Grains Outlook 8

      Rice Outlook 12

      Sugar Outlook 16

      Dairy Outlook 22

      Livestock Outlook 26

Market Strategy 30

      Monthly Commodities Strategy 30

Upstream Analysis 36

      Asia GM Outlook: Slow But Steady Move Towards GMOs 36

      Asia Machinery Outlook 42

      Asia Fertiliser Outlook 47

Downstream Analysis 53

      Food 53

Regional Overview 56

      Five Key Themes In Asia Agribusiness 56

Competitive Landscape 62

Demographic Forecast 64

      Demographic Outlook 64

Agribusiness Methodology 68

Thailand Agribusiness Report Q3 2018

BMI Industry View 4

SWOT 7

Industry Forecast 8

      Grains Outlook 8

      Rice Outlook 12

      Sugar Outlook 16

      Dairy Outlook 22

      Livestock Outlook 26

Commodities Price Analysis 30

      Monthly Commodities Strategy 30

Upstream Analysis 36

      Asia GM Outlook 36

      Asia Machinery Outlook 42

      Asia Fertiliser Outlook 47

Downstream Analysis 51

      Food 51

Regional Overview 54

Competitive Landscape 60

Demographic Forecast 61

      Demographic Outlook 61

Agribusiness Methodology 65

Thailand Agribusiness Report Q4 2018

Key View 4

SWOT 6

Industry Forecast 7

      Thailand Grains Agribusiness Outlook 7

      Thailand Rice Agribusiness Outlook 11

      Thailand Sugar Agribusiness Outlook 15

      Thailand Dairy Agribusiness Outlook 20

      Thailand Livestock Agribusiness Outlook 24

Commodity Price Forecasts 29

      Monthly Commodities Strategy 29

Upstream Analysis 37

      Asia GM Outlook 37

      Asia Machinery Outlook 43

      Asia Fertiliser Outlook 49

Competitive Landscape 53

Regional Overview 54

      Asia Regional Overview 54

Thailand Demographic Outlook 61

Agribusiness Methodology 64

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