In this week's round-up we discuss our revised US coal production forecasts, the globalcobalt supply chain, and growth in global lithium production.
We at Fitch Solutions are making upwards revisions to our short-term production forecastsfor both coking and thermal coal, in light of a strong demand outlook and elevated prices inthe short term. We now expect US coal production of 79.3mnt coking and 466.7mntthermal in 2022, and 80.1mnt coking and 476.0mnt thermal in 2023, up an average of1.6mntpa for coking and 13.6mntpa for thermal. For thermal coal, we expect to seecontinued high demand over 2022 and 2023 as elevated natural gas prices maintainincentives for the power sector to bring more coal-generated power online. With regard tocoking coal, although prices have peaked we expect them to average higher in 2022 thanin 2021, further incentivising production expansion. By contrast, we have revised down ourlonger-term production forecasts for both coking and thermal coal, in response to theincreased pace of the green transition and a weaker consumption outlook, amid a thinproject pipeline.

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