The sovereign risk rating is at BB. The rating is supported by Azerbaijan's large current-account surplus, high foreign-exchange reserves, a low public debt/GDP ratio and broad macroeconomic stability. The main factors weighing on the score are a recent fall in reserves (from an eight-year peak), the poor transparency of the public finances and the risk that the government's commitment to servicing its debt could waver if the economic context changed.

Central scenario for 2024-28 3

Political outlook 3

Economic policy outlook 5

Economic forecast 6

Key risk indicators 8

Ratings summary 9

Quarterly indicators 10

International assumptions summary 11

Economic structure 12

Public finances 13

Financial sector 14

Current account 15

External trade 16

External financing requirement 17

External debt stock 18

External debt service 19

Data sources and notes 20

Country risk ratings 21

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