Our long-term analysis of the copper market has identified four key takeaways:
1.Copper demand to rise at a CAGR of 2.6% between 2023 and 2034: Consumption will still be supported by energy transition demand. Copper will be required to connect batteries to electric vehicle powertrains, in the electric motors themselves and in the charging infrastructure. Copper will also be required for solar energy and wind power, but within energy transition sectors it is the EV space that will see the strongest growth in demand.
2. Copper production (from all sources) will grow at CAGR of 2.2%: Most of this growth will occur in the first half of the forecast period. Primary supply will rise at a CAGR of 2.0% and will continue to dominate supply. Primary production's share of total supply will peak at 67% in 2029 but will gradually slip to 64% by 2034 as mines close. Solvent extraction/ electrowinning (SX/EW) production will be lower in 2034 than in 2023. A rise in production in the Democratic Republic of the Congo will drive near-term supply higher but in the long-term, this supply will not be able to offset the fall in SX/EW production in Chile due to ore depletion.
3. Secondary supply growth to rise at a CAGR of 4.9%: Efforts to improve sustainability, coupled with slow concentrate supply growth, should result in higher production from secondary sources.
4. Market to be in deficit in 2024, from a balance in 2023: Weaker-than-expected near-term production growth will keep the market in deficit in 2024, from a balance in 2023 (a deficit of only 3,000 tonnes). The market will return to balance in 2025 but we forecast renewed deficits in the following two years. The 2028-2031 period will be one of surpluses, but the final three years of the forecast period will see supply growth slow. As a result, we see an investment requirement for an additional 1,364,000 tonnes of capacity by 2034.

Key takeaways 4

Changes in forecasts 5

Apparent demand 6

Supply 7

Market balance 8

Macro-economic outlook & copper

Policy support: The Inflation Reduction Act

Demand 12

Recent demand developments 12

Battery demand continues to grow despite macro-economic outlook 13

Plug-in EV sales forecast 14

Regional BEV sales forecast 15

EV charging infrastructure 16

EVs to dominate automotive energy transition demand 17

Wind sector consumption to grow at 11.2% CAGR 18

Growth in solar sector copper usage to lag EVs and wind 19

EV sector to drive energy transition usage 20

Supply 21

Copper concentrate supply 21

Chile copper concentrate outlook 22

Peru copper concentrate outlook 23

Disruption allowances - concentrates 24

Concentrate supplies - post-disruption 25

SX/EW production 26

DRC to account for more than half of possible SX/EW production 27

SX/EW disruption allowances 28

Expected SX/EW supply to peak in 2025 29

Secondary refined production to rise at 4.9% CAGR 30

Total copper supply to rise at 2.2% CAGR 31

Secondary supply to eat into SX/EW share 32

Historical balances 33

Faster supply growth in 2023 has balanced the market 33

Market was balanced in 2023 34

Visible stocks have trended down 35

Forecasts 36

Closures and lower production to drag market back into deficit in 2024 36

Market balance and price foreacst 37

Appendix 38

Key takeaways

Changes in apparent demand forecast 5

Changes in refined supply forecast 5

Apparent refined copper demand forecast 6

Mine supply forecast by country (before disruption allowances) 7

Refined copper supply forecast by type 7

Copper market balance forecast 8

Macro-economic outlook & copper

Global GDP 9

Policy support: The Inflation Reduction Act

IRA funding for battery industry 10

Copper-producing projects receiving IRA funding 11

Demand

Recent apparent refined copper demand 12

Plug-in EV sales to 2034f 14

Regional BEV sales to 2034f 15

Regional EV penetration rates to 2034f 15

EV charging infrastructure by region 16

EV charging infrastructure by type 16

Copper demand in the EV sector 17

Wind power additions and refined copper usage 18

Solar capacity additions and refined copper use 19

Refined copper demand from energy transition sectors 20

Supply

Copper concentrate supply, 2023e-2034f 21

Outlook for Chile concentrate production, 2023e-2034f 22

Outlook for Peru concentrate production, 2023e-2034f 23

Disruption allowances - concentrate 24

Copper concentrate supply after disruption allowances 25

SX/EW possible production 26

SX/EW supply, 2023e 27

SX/EW supply, 2034f 27

SX/EW disruption allowance 28

SX/EW supply after disruption allowances 29

Secondary copper production 30

Refined copper supply forecast by type 31

Shares of refined supply, 2023e, 2034f 32

Historical balances

Historical refined copper supply and apparent demand 33

Historical market balance and LME copper cash price 34

Historical reported stocks and LME copper cash price 35

Forecasts

Forecast refined copper supply and apparent demand 36

Forecast copper price and market balance 37

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